sabato 25 giugno 2016


Yesterday, UK citizens voted to leave the European Union : a huge mistake for the UK and a problem for the entire trajectory of construction of Europe.

Prime minister Cameron has the historic responsibility of holding an unnecessary referendum and of not having been able to communicate the reasons to stay in Europe.

The UK comes out divided from this referendum both geographically (the majority of Scotland and Northern Ireland and London voted to stay and the majority of England and Wales to leave) and in terms of age groups (the majority of youths voted to stay against most of the older generations and elderly who voted to leave).

Today all the European stock markets have suffered strong losses and the British pound fell by 10%. However, I feel that the stock market falls are emotional reactions that will recover in the short term in most European countries including Italy.

Instead, I believe that for the UK, this marks the beginning of a long period of economic decline and loss of relevance in the global landscape: simply because the UK (supposing that is stays united and does not see the secession of Scotland and Northern Ireland)
is a macroeconomic system that is too small to have any political weight or to compete economically in the current global scenario. 

The real risk for Europe would be a phenomenon of emulation by other countries who could be dragged towards political and economic suicide by populist leaders through similar irresponsible referendums.

I'm convinced this won't happen due to three fundamental reasons:
1. In a few quarters, and maximum one year, the economic damage suffered by the UK will be evident and this will discourage any country from following suit.
2. This referendum will be a stimulus to accelerate the process of European integration, at least for key countries such as Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, even if this will signify the rise of two groups in Europe with two different speeds of integration.
3. The British result will push Europe towards a political agenda that will better marry "growth and rigor" and give birth to a great program of European breadth. 

The two main priorities must be, I believe, youth unemployment and control of immigration flux.

Finally, it would help if national governments and populists stop denying their political responsibilities and putting blame on Europe (see my post of March 22 2015 on this subject).

I'm convinced that Europe will overcome this difficulty created by the exit of the UK, and will continue its process of integration and its role model of Peace and of Civilization in the world.