E-Mobiliy

 The number of electric cars ( including. both Plug-in Electric Vehicles and Battery Electric Vehicles ) in circulation in the world reached 4 M units at the beginning of last September. It is still a very small quota of the about 1.2 Billion cars of all kind circulating in the world. Moreover the new electric cars shipped in one year are currently about 1 Million vs the nearly 100 Million of all cars shipped in one year in the World.

Therefore the E-Mobility remains at the moment a niche market.

However the pace is accelerating: to ship the last 1 M of Electric Cars it took 17 months, while it is expected that the next 1 M cars will be shipped in just seven months and the E- Vehicles in circulation in the world will reach 5 M units by March of 2019.

More electric cars taking the place of  traditional fossil fuels powered cars means less pollution, and less cost of maintenance for the owners because the electric car is intrinsically simpler and potentially cheaper.
Therefore I believe that the speed of E-Mobility will accelerate much faster than predicted today.

There are 3 major reasons that are limiting the growth of the e-cars:

1. The cost of the cars and the cost of the batteries. This is due to the relative low volumes and the low production capacity installed. However all the car manufacturers are rushing to install new capacity or to convert part of the installed for the production of e- cars and the volume are growing very rapidly(with the Chinese and Japanese car manufacturers leading the race).
2. The autonomy of the battery and the time of recharge. Today a normal e-car has a limited autonomy of about 200Km and will take some 50 min to recharge in a fast recharging station. However many companies are working to improve the performance of the new batteries in terms of autoctono y and time of recharge. Those companies include many  Chinese, some big Japanese, like Toshiba and Panasonic, and some innovative s start-up like the israelian StoreDot backed by BP. By 2025 there will be on the market batteries cheaper, safer, and capable of 500 km autonomy and less than 10 min recharging time. And the trend will continue and by 2030 the batteries on the market will assure 800 Km of autonomy and less than 5 min of recharge.
3. The third limiting factor to the fast growth of the e-mobility is the recharging infrastructure in the urban areas and in the main roads and highways in the world.

This issue is also being addressed and a large network of infrastructure is being built in the world with very long recharging time at home, fast recharging points in the urban areas and very fast recharging points in the major extra urban roads and highways.

I believe that those 3 issues being arrested and the corrective developments taking
place will change the world market of cars:

I BELIEVE THAT THE PACE OF E-CARS SHIPMENTS WILL ACCELERATE VERY
FAST FROM 2025 ON AND BY 2030 MORE THAN 50% OF THE NEW CARS SHIPPED IN THE WORLD WIL BE ELECTRIC AND BY 2040 ALL NEW CARS SHIPPED IN THE WORLD WILL BE ELECTRIC.