Vehicular electric mobility will become a revolutionary innovation that will impact civil society at a profound level within the next 10-20 years.
This revolution will realize:
1. A drastic cut in fossil fuel consumption, with coinciding benefits on the reduction of pollution, thus lowering related casualties and strongly contributing to the fight against global warming.
2. The reduction of fossil fuels thanks to electric mobility, and the growth of renewable sources will lessen the revenues of various nations under autocratic regimes that use parts of these provisions to export Islamic fundamentalism.
3. With assisted driving, and the following introduction of autonomous driving of electric automobiles, we will inevitably see a substantial decrease of urban traffic, thereby creating a more efficient and sustainable city. (A few studies showcased that every self-driving vehicle can ensure the replacement of up to five traditional gas-functioning automobiles).
As we see the potential benefits that can arise from this innovation, the contentious question remains of why the production of electric automobiles (eventually self-driving automobiles) is not sought out at a more rapid rate, and when is the plausible time for development.
Currently, there is at least the rapid growth of electric automobile registration at the hands PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electrical Vehicles) and BEV (Battery Electrical Vehicles). In 2017, there have been over one million registrations, with China being the prominent market.
There are nonetheless, three obstacles to overcome for quicker diffusion of electric mobility on wheel:
1. The cost of electric automobiles is still markedly higher than traditional vehicles. This is seemingly due to the low quantity of electric automobiles being constructed, the initial amortization of equipment of production, and of the high prices of batteries. However, they are rapidly decreasing annually which leads me to believe that the cost of production of electric automobiles will stabilize within 2025 to a similar level of combustion engine vehicles.
2. The low self-sufficiency of batteries, therefore giving rise to the necessity of frequent recharges. This issue is being tackled with the introduction of a new generation of batteries that accumulate more energy while simultaneously having less weight and volume. As such, I believe that by the year 2030, we will have access to batteries that can sustain an autonomy of over 500 Km with a lower cost, weight, and volume.
3. The absence of a widespread infrastructure for quick recharging of batteries, unlike gasoline distributors. Even on this subject matter, technological developments are being made so that compact charging stations will eventually be embedded on a national scale.
In essence, I believe that a network of speedy charging will be available at least in all European countries, Japan, United States, China, and many other countries by 2035.
By the year 2035, the production of auto electric vehicles will have surpassed that of traditional combustion automobiles.
By the year 2040, electric mobility will be prevalent on global scale.
By the year 2050, I believe that the production of combustion engines will cease to exist (except for some niche product and maintenance of existing facilities), resulting in beneficial effects for the environment, for citizens’ health and costs, and for congestion of urban traffic.